Ukraine grapples with mobilization challenges amid US pressure

Parents of 17-year-olds are taking them out of Ukraine in advance so that once they reach adulthood, they won't be affected by a ban on leaving the country and potential future mobilization. According to BBC Ukraine, this dramatic step is due to discussions around mobilizing people aged 18 to 25 for war. Previously, mobilization affected citizens over the age of 25, but this may change. The Ukrainian army lacks recruits, and the pace of mobilization does not cover the losses at the front.

The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, is under pressure from the U.S. administration, which expects the Ukrainian army to mobilize men aged 18 to 25. Experts warn, however, that preserving the generation of about 2.5 million people (1.3 million men) is crucial for the country's potential.

"The Ukrainian nation may disappear in 180 years if the demographic situation does not change," warned Dr. Olga Bohomolec, a well-known Ukrainian doctor and expert. She highlighted the consequences of war losses, emigration, and unfavourable demographic trends. "The lands of Ukraine will remain; someone will sow grain on them, but they will no longer be Ukrainians," stated Bohomolec, as quoted by the Unian agency.

President Zelensky does not agree with the proposals from the U.S. - "What we have made clear is that if they produce additional forces to join the fight, we and our allies will be ready to equip those forces and train those forces to enter battle," announced U.S. State Department spokesman, Matthew Miller, recently. He emphasized that the proposal stems from conclusions after jointly discussing the situation at the front in the eastern part of the country. For the past three months, the Russians have been gaining new territories there.

"Zelensky's actions are incomprehensible. He neither wants nor can accept the conditions presented by Putin, yet he has no idea how to help his exhausted army," assessed a Polish military expert. The army needs 400,000 to 500,000 people to create units that will replace the fighting soldiers in a few months.

Gen. Skrzypczak believes that due to exhaustion from battles and losses, Ukrainian forces are retreating at the front in the eastern part of the country. The Russians are conducting battles, cutting off defenders near Pokrovsk and Kurakhove. Ultimately, the Kremlin aims to capture the Ukrainian regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson.

"Both sides are extremely exhausted by the conflict and cannot afford to carry out decisive operations. Russia will have new forces after the autumn draft and will certainly deploy them," summed up a former military officer.

The discussion around drafting the youngest reservists has met with mixed reactions in Ukraine. - "We don't have enough young people. Some say we are creating a lost generation because they will go to war. If they don't want to go to war, they are already a lost generation. We raised those who do not want to defend their homeland," expressed Col. Roman Kostenko of the SBU military intelligence, secretary of the National Security, Defence, and Intelligence Committee.

Controversial Ukrainian deputy Mariana Bezuhla revealed in November that the army's personnel shortages are so great that the most valuable specialists are being sent to the trenches as infantry. She described how this weakened anti-aircraft units, allowing more Russian drones to strike cities.

Military experts estimate that during the winter of 2024-25, the Kremlin will want to conclude several major battles. They will solidify territorial gains before Donald Trump's administration takes power and before expected negotiations begin.

Meanwhile, a surprising voice came from the Kremlin on December 10. - "Russia has practically fulfilled the 'special operation' missions in Ukraine set before the invasion by President Vladimir Putin." (...) "The strategic initiative in all areas belongs to us, we are close to achieving our goals," said the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), Sergei Naryshkin in an interview. According to him, the United States and the United Kingdom expected to impose on Russia a long-lasting war of attrition.

Despite Naryshkin's boasts, the statement was interpreted on Telegram as a signal that the Kremlin is willing to end the conflict. The goals of the 'special operation' do not exist. They will be exactly what Putin deems necessary to declare victory when he decides to end the war, summarized the Russian authors of the research project System.