Trump proposes high-stakes talks with Putin amid Ukraine crisis

Speaking to attendees at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Trump emphasized his hopes for an imminent meeting with Putin, aimed at concluding the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

- I really hope to meet President Putin soon and end this war. Not from an economic standpoint, but because lives are being lost. It's flat terrain, and the only barriers to missiles are human lives. I'm not talking about the economy or natural resources. So many young people are perishing in this conflict, Trump said.

At the same time, troubling news continues to emerge from the frontlines for Kyiv. Russian forces are tightening the blockade of Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk region. The town is seen as a vital stronghold and logistical hub in southern Donetsk. The situation there is described as "close to critical."

Additional towns to the west and south of nearby Pokrovsk have also fallen under the control of the aggressor's forces.

According to predictions by Ukrainian soldiers and analysts, if Velyka Novosilka is captured, Russian forces will have a clear path for further offensives northward in the Donetsk region towards Pokrovsk and westward towards the Zaporizhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions.

It's not the only concern. As "Ukrayinska Pravda" reported, the military is sinking into crisis: "Lack of infantry, dysfunctional command structures, false reports, desertions, and corruption."

- Ukraine as a country does not have the capacity to regain control of the front this year. It will not be able to rebuild such reserves or restore the capabilities it had during the greatest missed opportunity - the failed June offensive. This is partly due to the West, as the pace and calibre of supplies have not enabled the Ukrainian army to regain that capability. It's also partly due to the Ukrainians themselves, who did not fully utilize what they had, said retired Colonel Piotr Lewandowski to Wirtualna Polska, an instructor at the Territorial Defence Training Centre and participant in multiple military missions in Iraq and Afghanistan.

He notes that additional problems experienced by Kyiv before the war have returned with increased severity.

- There's a lack of well-trained personnel. Those who trained over 10 years ago during the operation in Donbas were either too few or perished in battle. There was time to establish a training system that could expand the army to a level of one million people. Attempts were made, but they did not result in achieving combat readiness. Lewandowski enumerates the prevalent corruption in the military also adds to this issue.

Professor Maciej Milczanowski, a political scientist and security expert, deputy director of the Institute of Political Sciences at the University of Rzeszów, shares a similar viewpoint. - The Ukrainian army clearly lacks quality personnel. The higher up the chain of command you go, the worse it becomes. Brigade or division commanders must possess a wealth of experience. What difference does it make if Ukraine wants to engage in Western-style warfare if it lacks the commanders capable of doing so? says Prof. Milczanowski.

He recalls that commanders trained in the West and by Americans after the 2014 conflict in Donbas are dying in battle. - They are being replaced by Soviet-era commanders with a completely different approach to conducting military operations. There is also war fatigue and dissatisfaction with corruption at the top of the army. Ordinary soldiers, upon hearing about it, often do not wish to fight for Ukraine. Often, they do not receive salaries and are not rotated; rather, they have to fight in the mud or trenches for months, Prof. Milczanowski assesses.

According to retired Colonel Piotr Lewandowski, the Ukrainian army's challenges also stem from the efficiency of the Russians. - The Russian army is more adept at deploying personnel and has imposed its style of warfare. Ukraine has to fight on Russian terms. Russia holds the initiative at the front and will continue to maintain it. Their army command is performing better. Russia operates as a dictatorship, and within the army, this - as evidenced - works. Meanwhile, the fledgling Ukrainian democracy struggles with managing the armed forces, says retired Colonel Lewandowski.

The former military officer emphasizes that overall, the Russians are just as far from achieving their initial objectives in the conflict. - They have failed to force the government in Kyiv to resign, have not captured the Ukrainian capital, and have not demilitarized it. They are closer to attaining partial aims, particularly regarding the annexation of four regions. However, they face challenges there as well, the expert highlights.

He calculates that in the Kherson region, they are positioned on the opposite bank of the Dnieper River, and their chances of launching an offensive across the river are currently zero. - In the Zaporizhia region, they are only engaging in positional operations because they lack the strength to engage in multiple directions. They have concentrated all their efforts on the Donbas. They have nearly fully seized the Luhansk region. Meanwhile, if they wish to capture the Donetsk region at the current pace, it would take them a year. Progress there is steady but paid for in blood and slow, claims retired Colonel Piotr Lewandowski.

According to both experts from Wirtualna Polska, Donald Trump's efforts to end the war will largely depend on Putin's stance and geopolitical and economic pressures on Russia.

- I agree with Trump's assertion that this war needs to end. Ukrainian society is increasingly recognizing that it must accept losing some territory and facing diplomatic defeat. The key is determining how to compel Russia to negotiate when they hold the upper hand at the front, and Ukraine lacks the means to regain military superiority. According to Trump's statements, we should anticipate more economic pressure on Russia rather than increased military support. His plan seems reasonable, says Lewandowski.

Meanwhile, Prof. Maciej Milczanowski points out that the Russians are desperately deploying everything they have to the front because if they negotiate, it will be from a position of strength.

- We don’t know the direction, according to Trump, in which the negotiations should proceed. Whether on fair terms or conducted rapidly and effectively. The problem may be that the Gulf states do not adhere to the United States concerning oil in the manner the American leader would prefer. It will be difficult to establish an "oil lever" over Russia. Particularly since the effects will not be immediate, evaluates Prof. Milczanowski.

In his view, growing geopolitical troubles for Russia present an opportunity to end the war. - The Kremlin is losing influence in the Middle East and South America. Putin also perceives his inability to exert influence in Armenia, Kazakhstan, and Syria. Political directions there are shifting away from Moscow and towards countries like China, Turkey, or the United States in Africa. These are significant geostrategic losses for Russia. Trump recognizes this and seeks to leverage it in negotiations, summarizes the security expert.

Sylwester Ruszkiewicz