Slovakia's energy gambit: Navigating Russian influence and European ties
It appears that Putin gave Fico the order to open the second energy front against Ukraine at the expense of the Slovak people’s interests, said Zelensky on Saturday in a lengthy post on the X platform.
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico threatened Ukraine on Friday, warning of a potential halt to electricity supplies if Kyiv proceeds with its plans to stop the transit of Russian gas to Slovakia after the New Year. On December 22, he met with Vladimir Putin in Moscow to discuss, among other topics, the future of gas supplies.
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky responded to Prime Minister Fico's threats. In a post on the X platform, he suggested that "Putin gave Fico the order to open the second energy front against Ukraine at the expense of the Slovak people’s interests."
Both Russia and Ukraine have stated that there are no grounds for extending the transit agreement through Ukraine. However, the Prime Minister of Slovakia insists on maintaining gas transit after 2024 and has proposed alternative solutions that wouldn't require engagement between the conflicting nations, notes "Bloomberg".
"Second, Fico's shortsighted policy has already deprived the Slovak people of compensation for losing Russian gas transit," said Zelensky in a post on the X platform. "It now risks depriving the Slovaks of another $200 [CAD 290] million per year, which Ukraine pays for the imported electricity."
Is Slovakia cut off? Not necessarily
Prime Minister Fico is promoting the notion that after January 1, Slovakia will lose access to the main gas supply from the Druzhba pipeline.
Slovakia is almost entirely reliant on imported natural gas. Domestic production covers only about 1% of demand, which averages 4.4 billion cubic metres of gas annually.
The primary supplier is Russia, with which Slovakia has a contract signed with Gazprom covering deliveries until 2028. The Bratislava government acceded to Putin's demands and agreed to pay Moscow for the gas in rubles starting in 2022. Prime Minister Fico argued to Brussels that these supplies are crucial for maintaining the country's energy security. However, the European Commission responded that countries dependent on Russian gas had ample time to secure alternative sources.
As reported on money.pl, despite the government's narrative, Slovakia has strengthened its cross-border connections, gaining access to the European network and potential supplies from various directions. An important supply route could be the pipeline from Germany through the Czech Republic and the network of the so-called Southern Corridor, including a pipeline connection through Austria with LNG terminals in Croatia on the island of Krk, Greece, or Italy. There's also a connection with Poland available.
Fico's gas business
Cutting off Russian supplies through Ukraine doesn't mean the country will be without gas. However, it directly affects the gas interests of Slovaks, who made profits from the transit of Russian gas to the Czech Republic and further into Europe.
According to the Central European Institute, even before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, about 92% of the natural gas transported through Slovak territory (data from 2019) was for transit and generated significant revenues.
However, Fico argues that all of Europe would suffer from the cessation of Russian gas flow. He claimed that the European Union would need to confront an additional CAD 180 billion in energy costs over the next two years due to the transit shutdown through Ukraine. Brussels does not share this perspective.
"Stopping the transit of Russian natural gas through Ukraine is not just a hollow political gesture," said Fico, as quoted by Bloomberg. "It’s an extremely costly move, one that we, in the European Union, will pay for," said the Slovak Prime Minister, standing firm.
