Russia's missile myth: Propaganda or real threat?
Thursday's Russian intermediate-range missile attack, Oreshnik, on the city of Dnipro in Ukraine is part of a propaganda campaign intended to exaggerate Russia's capabilities and put pressure on the West and the authorities in Kyiv, according to the latest analysis by the American think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
After the Oreshnik missile hit the Yuzhmash defence plant in Dnipro, Russian media and authorities began a narrative of a great military and technological success. The Yuzhmash plant, which in Soviet times produced, among other things, SS-20 missiles ("Satan"), was once the largest defence enterprise in Europe.
During Friday's speech at the Kremlin, President Vladimir Putin congratulated the military on conducting a "successful" test of the Oreshnik ballistic missile. He described the attack as a response to "those who are trying to blackmail" Russia.
Putin emphasized that the Oreshnik is not an upgrade of an old missile but was created based on "the latest and modern developments." "Modern air defence systems… cannot intercept such missiles. That's impossible," he declared.
Putin's words were supported by the commander of the Strategic Missile Forces, Gen. Sergei Karakayev, who claimed that Oreshnik can strike targets throughout Europe and has no equivalent worldwide. Putin also announced the start of mass production of this missile.
Is Putin just bluffing?
However, American and Ukrainian sources point out that Oreshnik is "not a fundamentally new weapon." White House and Pentagon officials confirmed that Russia launched an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) on Ukraine.
Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh reported that it is a modification of the Russian intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) RS-26 Rubezh. She also noted that Ukraine had previously experienced attacks using missiles with "significantly larger" warheads than Oreshnik.
The Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) reported that the launched missile is actually a Kedr missile, developed between 2018–2019 to modernize the ICBM Yars model for shorter-range attacks. HUR chief, Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, explained that "Oreshnik" is the codename for the research and development project of the Kedr missile.
Analysts from ISW admitted that they could not independently confirm these reports but emphasized that they are notable.
The Kremlin may conduct further tests
According to the Institute's assessment, Russia did not showcase a new arsenal during the latest missile attack. Moscow may benefit from the publicity surrounding this strike, hoping that fueling fears about Oreshnik will prompt the West to withdraw support for Ukraine.
ISW notes that in the coming days, the Kremlin may conduct further tests using similar ballistic missiles to achieve the same propaganda effect. Russian sources announce the closure of part of the airspace on Saturday and Sunday for missile tests but do not specify the type of missiles being tested.
The deputy head of HUR, Gen. Vadym Skibitsky, warned that Russia likely possesses up to 10 Oreshnik missiles and will soon conduct tests of all these rockets.
