Russia's hidden resource vulnerability threatens arms production

Russian exports mainly consist of natural resources like oil and natural gas. Despite imposed sanctions, there remains a global demand for them, with new Western buyers partially replacing old ones, such as China and India, who are seizing the opportunity.

Russia also controls the transport of tungsten, which is essential for the Western arms sector. It is a significant producer of enriched uranium, critical fuel for nuclear power plants.

Although Kremlin propaganda portrays Russia as a self-sufficient resource powerhouse, this is not entirely true. One of Putin's regime's weaknesses is its reliance on external supplies of manganese, essential for the modern arms industry.

The issue, a pressing but unpublicized problem for the Kremlin, is discussed in detail by Yevgeny Fyodorov from the Russian service Topwar. The author notes that while Russia has only two large manganese deposits, they are significant.

The problem lies in the inability to effectively exploit these resources, relying on Soviet heritage in strategic resource extraction without investing in research or developing the mining sector. Russian extraction accounts for about 2% of the world's manganese production, which is just a drop in the ocean of needs for the arms sector supporting the war in Ukraine.

Russia has found a way around EU sanctions. Manganese reaches it through Kazakhstan, Turkey, and Iran, as well as the Baltic countries. Notably, Estonia and Latvia have long been warning that strategic raw materials reach Russia through their ports, but, as countries governed by law, they lack the means to block this process.

An alternative import route allows Russia to continue production but increases its costs and - being less stable - raises the risk of potential supply chain disruptions. Why is manganese so significant to Russia?

It is an element essential for industry, including the arms sector: it improves the mechanical properties of steel, reduces corrosion susceptibility, and lowers the melting temperature (which aids processing). Although its addition in armour steel is typically a fraction of a percent, it is indispensable.

Rich deposits, however, are located near Russia. According to a report by Ukraine's State Geological and Subsoil Service, in 2019, Ukraine accounted for 10% of global manganese production, which - combined with other natural resources of Ukraine - may have been one of the unofficial reasons for the Russian invasion of that country.

Chromium is as important to Russia as manganese, as its addition to steel increases hardness, improves hardenability, heat resistance, and corrosion resistance. Here too, Russia is forced to import 60% of the national demand, with most of the critical industrial raw material arriving via Kazakhstan.

Currently, exploited chromium deposits (and many other resources) are running low in Russia. In September 2024, Russia's Minister of Natural Resources, Alexander Kozlov, raised the alarm on this issue. The minister noted that deposits of key minerals are nearing depletion and can meet the demands of Russian industry for only 5 to 15 years, depending on the resource.

He attributed this situation to the near-total cessation of geological research and a focus on exploiting resources dating back to the Soviet era. This short-sighted, profit-driven policy has led Russia to reach for Arctic resources, escalating regional tensions and provoking counteractions from the West.

Russia's reliance on imported resources also impacts the credibility of the threats that Putin occasionally directs at the rest of the world. While Russia can indeed cut off supplies of resources important to the West, such as uranium, tungsten, or titanium, Kremlin propaganda consistently overlooks the fact that disrupting the global supply chain could become a double-edged sword, harmful not only to the West but - if the West responds similarly - primarily to Russia itself.