Russia races against time to reclaim Kursk before potential truce

After a surprising attack in August 2024, Ukrainians seized an area of about 1,000 square kilometres. This is approximately the same amount that Russia captured last year in Ukraine. The strike was so unexpected that the Kremlin was long convinced that the Ukrainian incursion was merely a raiders' raid that would end quickly.

The Russians therefore slept through the crucial moment when the Ukrainians managed to penetrate their territory, fortify positions, and bring in artillery, which now plays a main role in the positional battles.

The seriousness of the situation and the scope of Ukrainian actions became clear to the Kremlin only after nearly two weeks, and only then did they react systematically. By August 19, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced the creation of three new Army Groups – Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk.

The new Groups are responsible for the protection of the regions in which they operate. Primarily, this involves defence against air strike means. The decree also mentions the protection of the population. And although nothing was written about the defence of the territory of the Russian Federation, it was the first step to coordinate actions on the attacked territories. Today, the Kursk Army Group already numbers 40,000 to 50,000 soldiers, including several thousand Koreans sent by Kim Jong Un.

The authorities in Moscow officially downplayed the loss of a large territory of the Russian Federation. Kremlin propaganda tried to explain the defeat by a treacherous strike and commanders' mistakes. Local authorities were also blamed, but in reality, no one suffered any consequences.

Over time — and it's been more than 100 days since the attack on the region — it became increasingly difficult for the Kremlin to explain its image defeat. Even at the beginning of September, Vladimir Putin slammed his fist on the table and ordered the expulsion of Ukrainians by the end of the month. The command was not prepared for such an operation at that time – still lacking soldiers and heavy equipment in the region. Nevertheless, on September 11, an attack was launched. It ended after three days of fierce fighting, being shattered by the Ukrainians.

Only in the following weeks were the Russians able to force the Ukrainians to retreat and even the front line. Within a month and a half, the Russians regained about 230 square kilometres in the section where the Ukrainians had not built sufficient defensive positions. The most valuable Russian asset was the recapture of the village of Novoivanovka, quite significant from a logistics perspective. The town, located on the Rylsk-Korenovo–Sudzha route, is now used as a frontline base and a main foothold for subsequent strikes.

The battles, however, were so exhausting that the Russians had to start an operational break and only resumed the next phase of operations on November 6. The Kremlin hoped that this time things would go better. Meanwhile, reorganized units had appeared, transferred from other operational directions, along with a brigade of North Korean troops. After two weeks of fighting, prospects for the Russians do not look good.

In the first attack of the new wave in the Pogrebka-Orlovka-Nova Sorochyna area, a battle group of the 810th Guards Independent Marine Infantry Brigade lost ten out of 14 BTR-82 wheeled carriers, up to 30 killed, dozens wounded, and several taken prisoner. Russian official channels reported that in the same fight "the enemy lost up to 40 people killed and wounded, and four armored fighting vehicles were destroyed."

Subsequent attacks also yielded little. The Ukrainians, due to the terrain conditions — lacking large urbanized areas and large forest areas as well as open, flat spaces — prefer manoeuvre defence, in which they are excellently trained. They have demonstrated this since the beginning of the war, which cannot be said about the Russians.

The latter, due to a low level of training, cannot cope with more complicated tactics. The main reason is that Russian forces in the region consist largely of soldiers who have been serving for only a few months. Therefore, even numerical superiority in a five-to-one ratio does not help the Russians.

The press unit of the 95th Independent Air Assault Brigade published a film on their Telegram channel summarizing Russian attempts to break through near Orlovka.

"During two days of assault, the enemy did nothing but destroy their units and equipment. They lost 28 pieces of equipment and over 100 orcs from the 810th Marine Brigade. About a hundred occupiers were seriously injured. Our paratroopers knocked out their desire to continue the attack. The orcs began to retreat, but not everyone managed to do so," they wrote in the film's description.

For now, Russian military personnel are putting on a good face to a not-so-good game. "This is a chance to destroy Ukrainian reserves, the Ukrainian army, and maintain pressure in this area, so Ukraine does not send these reserves towards Donetsk, Kurakhovka, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, and so on," said Col. Res. Viktor Litovkin in an interview with Lenta.ru.

On the other hand, propaganda continually emphasizes that the Russian army is winning and destroying more Ukrainian units. Putin in Kazan said that 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers were encircled in the Kursk region. What kind and where exactly – that he did not say.

According to Russian data, Ukrainians have lost approximately 13,400 soldiers irretrievably in the Kursk region. This would mean that seven Ukrainian brigades ceased to exist. This data is from the realm of fantasy because it's two more brigades than those that struck in August in the region. Even if one were to believe this data, the question remains unanswered – why, despite such great Ukrainian losses, has the territory not yet been recovered?

Moreover, the Ukrainians supposedly lost 215 tanks, 141 infantry fighting vehicles, 116 armored personnel carriers, 1190 armored combat vehicles, 968 trucks, 294 artillery guns, 40 self-propelled rocket launchers, most of which were said to be M270 MLRS and M142 HIMARS. And again – it's futile to look for photos or videos confirming these successes.

After further failed operations, Putin had to postpone the "ultimate" date for recovering the Kursk region. It is now February 1, 2025. Additionally, by February 24, the Kremlin plans to establish a "buffer zone" on Ukrainian territory along the border.

The new dates are not random – in January, Donald Trump will already be in power in the USA. And if he indeed pushes for an end to the war, probably one of the conditions would be freezing the conflict and both sides remaining with their current territorial gains. Putin would like to have the lands lost in the Kursk region back in the Federation by this time. If he fails to achieve this, even his propaganda will have difficulty defending it.