Rising star Péter Magyar challenges Orbán's long-standing reign

In autumn 2006, a recording of then-Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány was made public. During a closed-door party meeting in May 2006, he admitted lying to Hungarians during that year's spring election campaign. The recording, released nearly six months later, resulted in mass protests—the largest since 1989. Since then, Orbán has remained a formidable force.

However, half a year ago, a change occurred, and a new player emerged on the political scene.

Péter Magyar has been praised by public opinion, even in Europe, as the "leader of the opposition" and Hungary's only chance for change. Although the surveys are impressive, the situation is not entirely straightforward.

Magyar is somewhat akin to the Robin Hood of Hungarian politics. Until February 2024, he lived comfortably, enjoying all the privileges of Viktor Orbán's system—the same system he now seeks to dismantle.

Magyar capitalized on the moment to enter politics. The turning point was February 10 of this year. On that day, President Katalin Novák resigned from office due to a scandal involving the pardon of a person implicated in concealing pedophilia. At the same time, Judit Varga, a politician who, as Minister of Justice, had signed the pardon request, withdrew from politics. Magyar is her ex-husband, and the fallout from their relationship was made public.

Péter Magyar's motto is "do not be afraid"—he directly states this refers to John Paul II. He has had a clear idea of his role from the outset. He positions himself as someone who knows the system from the inside and therefore possesses the "tools" to dismantle it.

In nine months in politics, he has launched a campaign for the European Parliament elections, introduced seven MEPs, and moved ahead of Orbán's coalition in surveys. Magyar did not create a party from scratch, as there wouldn't be time before the EU elections. He took over a "dormant" registered group and completely revamped it. TISZA stands for the Respect and Freedom Party (Tisztelet és Szabadság Párt). It is also the name of Hungary's second-largest river, giving rise to the party slogan "the Tisza flows," implying it will sweep away Fidesz-KDNP.

It's worth noting that the sensational promises Magyar made include only a recording of a conversation with his then-wife about a legal proceeding. There is no "leaking" of data or information compelling enough to bring people to the streets. So far, Magyar aligns with the opposition's existing platform, which boils down to one goal: to defeat Orbán. In fact, he mentioned 21 points or postulates during the national holiday on March 15, yet they lack concrete solutions to Hungarians' concerns.

One might argue that policy details interest only the informed reader, but the issue is that Magyar himself does not provide clear stances on important issues such as healthcare, education, or media. His statements largely consist of calls for freedom, pluralism, and funding. He did elaborate a bit more last Wednesday.

Magyar holds conservative views. He is closer to the non-radical wing of Fidesz-KDNP from years ago, earning him the "soft" version tag of Fidesz.

He opposes corruption (which he accuses the ruling majority of), supports Europe (desiring no deeper integration but a strong role for national parliaments), and holds a similar viewpoint to Orbán regarding Ukraine. Last week, the European Parliament voted on providing financial aid to Ukraine. Only MEPs from the liberal opposition voted "yes." One MEP from the far-right party Our Homeland voted "no," Fidesz-KDNP MEPs pretended to be absent (by removing their voting cards), and TISZA MEPs abstained (as the sole members of the European People's Party faction). Péter Magyar did not attend the vote at all.

Noteworthy is Magyar's novel approach to voter communication. He started a crowdfunding campaign for current and future election activities. Contributors gain different membership levels based on their financial support.

The basic level is available for 1,000 forints per month (about 9 Canadian dollars), while the VIP level is over 14,000 forints (about 125 Canadian dollars).

Magyar is active on the portal facebook.com, where he founded a group to communicate and interact with voters. In July, after the Russian shelling of Okhmatdyt hospital in Kyiv, a discussion erupted in the TISZA group about Hungary's stance on the war, Orbán's refusal to condemn Russia, and Hungary's insufficient assistance. Magyar organized a donation collection for Kyiv, packed his characteristic van (painted in Hungary's national colours), and delivered aid to Kyiv.

He organized similar initiatives in Hungary, delivering fans and hygiene products to hospitals.

On Wednesday, October 23, during Hungary's national holiday, Magyar unveiled part of his plan to take power by spring 2026. His objective is to hold Fidesz-KDNP accountable for 16 years of rule (despite practical challenges due to the justice system's alignment with Orbán). By joining the European Public Prosecutor's Office and addressing mismanagement, Hungary aims to unlock European funds, which are expected to invigorate the entire country.

Magyar wants to restore Hungary’s international reputation, reconstruct the Visegrad Group, and enhance social conditions enough to decrease the number of Hungarians living below the subsistence minimum. He promised to increase pensions and the minimum wage. Magyar also pledged a constitutional amendment to limit a prime minister to two terms.

The TISZA leader stated that preparations for the election program are underway, drawing from public consultations and the work of 65 working groups. He also announced the recruitment of 106 TISZA candidates for single-member districts. This was termed the "political X-factor" by the opposition portal Telex. Candidates are expected to be patriotic, have innovative ideas, and be talented.

This swift-moving TISZA train is impressive. In two consecutive surveys, Magyar surpasses Fidesz-KDNP. Although the differences fall within the margin of error, the coming months could favour Magyar as a credible challenger to Orbán.

His emergence on the political scene has led to extreme polarization. According to the 21 Kutatóközpont survey, his primary electoral base consists of the existing opposition (13%) and a relatively small segment of undecided voters (6%). Only 3% of voters are moving from Fidesz-KDNP to TISZA. The polls indicate that only Fidesz and TISZA have significant chances of entering the future parliament—both being right-wing parties.

This scenario closely resembles the past decade when Fidesz and Jobbik competed for dominance on the right, a contest from which Jobbik emerged defeated.

Orbán describes Magyar as a representative of a potential puppet government controlled by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European People's Party leader Manfred Weber, to which TISZA belongs. This narrative echoes the 2022 elections, when the prime minister warned that the opposition would drag Hungary into war (by sending soldiers). Now, this rhetoric targets Magyar.

The optimism with which the European public perceives Magyar conflicts with systemic realities. The fact is that the electoral law and code have been amended over the years to ensure Fidesz-KDNP's victory, even with theoretically fewer seats.

The electoral system is complex; voters cast two votes—one on a national list (93 MPs) and the other in single-member districts (106 MPs). The law includes a winner's and loser's bonus, which means that in the final distribution of parliamentary seats, millions of "mathematical" votes, a result of the electoral system, always benefit Fidesz.

Moreover, there is another challenge. Even if TISZA were to win the elections and secure many MPs, the state would likely face paralysis. Since the 1990s, Hungary has had constitutional laws requiring a constitutional majority of two-thirds (133 MPs) for any amendments. Initially, these laws were in the dozens, but since 2010, every politically significant law has been shielded by Fidesz-KDNP with this two-thirds majority requirement.

This means it is impossible to change the constitution, electoral law, family law, or criminal codes.

It is crucial for Magyar to clarify how he plans to overcome this challenge eventually. It seems nearly impossible to beat Fidesz on democratic terms sufficient to rewrite Hungary anew.