Putin's nuclear doctrine revamp: Waiting game for Trump?
Russia threatens with nuclear weapons. Amid rising tensions and growing threats, NATO asserts that no limitations should be placed on the weapons systems supplied to Ukraine. Should we truly be concerned? According to Dr. Jamie Shea, a former senior NATO official, Putin is waiting for Donald Trump to ascend to power.
Vladimir Putin has approved an amendment to the nuclear doctrine, stating that a "critical threat" to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Belarus and Russia may justify the use of nuclear weapons. The document makes it clear that "The fundamental principle of the doctrine is that the use of nuclear weapons is a measure of last resort to protect the country's sovereignty." Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov announced that this is a decisive signal for the West.
Is Putin waiting for Trump?
Has the risk of Russia using nuclear weapons truly increased? This question was addressed by Dr. Jamie Shea, a former senior NATO official.
He stated, "It's difficult to say. With Putin, you never know. He cautioned the West on the day he invaded Ukraine in February 2022 not to support Ukraine, or else it would face severe Russian retaliation. However, that never materialized. Russia has yet to react to the crossing of any of its red lines. Tanks, F-16s, long-range artillery, etc. By endorsing the new nuclear doctrine, Putin is indicating that he now possesses 'nuclear authority' to respond to Ukraine or the West, if he chooses to do so. He wants us to take Russia seriously," Shea remarked.
According to the former NATO official, "Putin will decide whether circumstances warrant a nuclear response."
He added, "I don't think he will decide to do that because he's waiting for Trump." He assessed that "waving the nuclear option is an effective tactic to scare and intimidate at any cost" to halt American military support for Ukraine.
Referring to the potential Western response to the possible use of nuclear weapons by Russia, he noted: "It's tough to evaluate because NATO countries do not publicly disclose how they would respond to such actions. The Kremlin remains uncertain, which reinforces deterrence. But behind closed doors, contingency planning is always ongoing."
In response to Moscow's deployment of North Korean ground troops on the frontlines, U.S. President Joe Biden's administration has authorized Ukraine to use American weapons to strike targets deep inside Russia.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said yesterday that each Alliance member state makes that decision independently. However, NATO has clearly stated in the past that "when allies deliver weapons systems (to) Ukraine, it is best not to put restrictions on them (these systems)."
