Putin's brinkmanship: Running out of options by 2025
Russian military resources from the Soviet era are expected to be depleted by the end of 2025, which may prompt Vladimir Putin to consider negotiations as early as the start of the year. Nevertheless, the Russian president is likely to continue military aggression in Ukraine, especially if talks encounter obstacles, writes Peter Pomerantsev in The Guardian.
"Soviet era military equipment towards the end of 2025; so he might start negotiations early next year but keep fighting until closer to the end of it, increasing attacks on civilians whenever the negotiations don’t go the way he likes," it reads.
The article's author reminded readers that although Putin feels he is successful on the battlefield, the pressure on the Russian economy is mounting. "Food prices up 9% every month; interest rates at over 20%," he highlighted.
Analyzing the consequences of the U.S. presidential elections, Pomerantsev stated that in Trump's circle, some individuals could agree to demilitarise Ukraine and leave the country under the political control of the Kremlin. "There are people around Trump who might agree to this—especially if Russia severs its military relationship with China," he remarked.
"But would Putin ditch his strategic partnership with Xi for an erratic America? Even sacrificing contacts with Tehran might be a poor deal for Putin," Pomerantsev stressed.
Could Europe influence Trump?
The author did not overlook that although Trump intends to encourage Russia and Ukraine to dialogue, the European Union and the United Kingdom may present their proposals. "If the EU and UK seize the $300bn of Russian state assets sitting in Euroclear, money Putin has long written off, we can bring serious funding to the table. Trump does not need to spend any more money on Ukraine – we can buy the weapon," wrote the "Guardian" expert.
Furthermore, Pomerantsev pointed out that Europe has tools to keep the United States in a pro-Ukrainian alliance even under Trump. "We are the ones who can offer something interesting [EU and the United Kingdom - ed. note]. Trading incentives for America. Greater spending on Nato. More pressure on Iran. "Peacekeeping" boots on the ground inside Ukraine. Help in the upcoming US economic skirmishes with China," the author noted.
Peter Pomerantsev, a British journalist born in the USSR, is best known for his book "Nothing is True and Everything is Possible."
