Polls show Trump leading Biden in key 2020 states: A shifting electorate
According to the latest poll by Sienna College and the New York Times, Donald Trump has a significant lead over Joe Biden in five of the six key states where Biden won the 2020 presidential election. The poll indicates that Biden is losing support among the youngest voters, Latinos and African Americans.
The study shows that Trump has a double-digit lead in Nevada (50-38 percent) and Georgia (49-39 percent). In Arizona and Michigan, Trump's lead is seven percentage points (49-42 percent), and in Pennsylvania, it’s three percentage points (47-44 percent).
The only key state where Biden has an advantage is Wisconsin, where he leads by two percentage points (47-45 percent).
The introduction of independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who can gain 10 percent of the votes, does not significantly affect the results since he takes votes from both Trump and Biden similarly.
Biden loses among youngest voters
"New York Times" notes that Biden's weaker performance in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada resulted from declining support among voter groups that contributed to his victory in 2020. This concerns the youngest voters (aged 18-29), Latinos, and African Americans. In these first two groups, both candidates have similar support, whereas four years ago, these voters clearly preferred Biden.
Among African American voters, the level of support for Trump is 20 percent, which is the highest result for a Republican candidate since the 1960s. Biden is also losing support among more moderate voters, and 13 percent of voters who voted for him in 2020 intend not to do so again due to the administration's policy on the conflict in the Gaza Strip.
The newspaper emphasizes that young voters and minority representatives are more dissatisfied with the economic situation and desire changes that they believe Trump can provide. Most voters want to change the "system". Fifty-five percent want significant changes, 27 percent smaller changes, and 14 percent want to completely dismantle the system.
However, Biden may draw hope from potentially higher election turnout, as he fares better among likely voters than all registered voters. Considering this group, Biden still wins in only one state (Michigan), but loses narrowly in two others (Pennsylvania and Wisconsin). Winning in these three states could give him the victory in the entire election.
Interestingly, Biden’s poor results do not affect the Democrats' chances in the Senate elections in the same states. Democratic candidates lead in all of them, even though Republicans are favoured to win a majority in that chamber.
