North Korea escalates tensions with nuclear threats and military aid to Russia

"If war breaks out, the Republic of Korea will be erased from the map. Because it wants war, we are ready to put an end to its existence," the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) stated this week.

The statement was released in response to propaganda leaflets dropped over North Korea, an action Pyongyang accused its southern neighbours of conducting. KCNA published blurry photos of balloons and leaflets as evidence, but the government in Seoul assured that it had nothing to do with the action. South Korean activists might be responsible if the leaflets were sent from the south.

This would not be the first such incident. In the past, activists from the south sent balloons with attached propaganda materials to the north, informing about North Korean camps and showing what life is like for citizens in South Korea. For instance, in 2020, the leaflets compared Kim Jong-un's starving subjects to the smiling citizens of South Korea.

North Korea has reciprocated and continues to do so — in the last four months alone, it has sent over 6,000 balloons to the south with various waste. Some even contained feces. In response, South Korea began broadcasting news from around the world and K-pop music via loudspeakers.

However, the "balloon war" had more severe consequences this time. The North Korean army has blown up sections of two unused roads connecting the two countries, and artillery and missile units have been deployed near the border. Pyongyang also heightened its border garrisons' alert status.

KCNA reported that over 1.4 million young people volunteered to join or return to the Korean People's Army. This was supposed to spontaneously respond to the "serious provocation," namely the leaflet action.

Putting the army on alert and blowing up various facilities is also not new. In 2020, North Korea demolished a liaison office building built right on the border. At that time, the army was also put on alert, and students, pupils, and farmers massively enlisted. Even earlier, in 2017, KCNA claimed nearly 3.5 million people volunteered in response to US pressure on the North Korean nuclear program.

Then, as now, Pyongyang portrayed this mass enlistment as a demonstration of national unity motivated by the desire to defend the country and retaliate. In turn, Seoul responded similarly by putting its own units on alert, and the Ministry of Defense in Seoul warned that if any South Korean citizen is harmed in any clash, North Korea would witness the "end of its regime."

Recent events are part of a series of defiant actions by Kim Jong-un.

In early October, the dictator warned that he might use nuclear weapons in potential conflicts with South Korea and the United States. According to him, both countries are responsible for raising hostilities on the Korean Peninsula.

"We will not hesitate to use all offensive capabilities against our enemies," Kim Jong-un announced.

Also troubling are the changes in the North Korean constitution. It now includes a clause stating that South Korea is an enemy country. Previously, North Korean doctrine envisaged peaceful reunification of the two states and the introduction of communism. Now, the constitution explicitly describes South Korea as a hostile state that needs to be conquered by force.

South Korean experts note that Kim decided to take this step because he felt confident after a rapprochement with the Russian Federation. In June, Russia and North Korea signed a treaty on a comprehensive strategic partnership. The agreement between Putin and Kim Jong-un includes a mutual defence clause under which both parties are to support each other in the event of external aggression.

One manifestation of this closeness is not only the delivery of artillery shells to the Kremlin but also the dispatch of several thousand North Korean soldiers to Russia. They are currently undergoing training. It is possible that by the end of 2024, they may be transferred to the front or border areas with Ukraine.

The regime, with Russia's nuclear power behind it, decided to flaunt its capabilities. However, as Prof. Kang Dong-wan, a professor of political science and diplomacy at Dong-a University in Busan, emphasized, escalation will not occur.

"The North Korean regime is based on a politics of fear and needs an external enemy," assessed Prof. Kang in an interview with the BBC. "Whenever tensions rise, North Korea emphasizes external threats to increase loyalty to the regime."

Kim is also aware of the weakness of his own army and limits himself only to provocations such as shelling uninhabited islands or blowing up roads. This is mere sabre-rattling because in a direct confrontation, the North Korean army cannot compete with its southern neighbour. In most areas, the development of its armed forces stopped at the level of the 1970s.

The army is over one-million-strong, and the fourth largest in the world, and it looks quite impressive on paper. The Global Firepower ranking, compiled solely based on dry numbers, places the North Korean army in 36th place, and the navy even in the top ten. However, closer inspection reveals a different picture.

The main type of tank is the Chonma-ho vehicle in versions from 1 to 3, of which Kim Jong-un has about 1,200. These Chonma-ho models are based on the Soviet T-62, whose production ended 40 years ago. The Koreans also have about 1,000 original Soviet T-62s. The remaining vehicles are original T-72s or their local variants.

The situation is far worse for mechanized units, which practically do not exist in the north. The Koreans mainly possess old Chinese VTT-323s and Soviet BMP-1s. Artillery development also halted decades ago. The main weapon is the M-20 howitzer dating back to the 1930s, and the D-74, two decades newer, produced in Korea under license.

The Air Force is truly a relic, with its backbone consisting of 120 Chengdu J-7s and 106 Shenyang J-5s. The former are licensed MiG-21s, and the latter are MiG-17Fs. The Koreans also have about a hundred Shenyangs J-6, Chinese-produced MiG-19s. These aircraft have not been modernized for over two decades, presenting no combat value. Similarly, the 80 bomber H-5s, which are licensed Il-28s, are antiquated. The best indicator of how old these machines are is that they were withdrawn from the Polish Air Force in 1979 when deemed outdated.

Mobilizing such an army against the well-organized and modern South Korean army could end in disaster and the actual collapse of the Kim dynasty regime. Kim Jong-un is aware of this, which is why he only rattles his sabre, having Vladimir Putin as an ally.