NATO's new long-range missile pact marks Europe’s defence shift

The 75th NATO summit was not solely focused on humanitarian issues for Ukraine. Equally important was the signing of a letter of intent concerning the development of a European cruise missile with a range of over 500 kilometres. Here is what it might entail.

The Polish Ministry of National Defence announced the signing of the letter of intent concerning developing a European cruise missile with a range of over 500 kilometres. Poland, France, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Italy will be the framework countries.

This is an extremely important document because European countries have limited options in the case of deep-strike capability behind enemy lines. The issue is particularly problematic for land-launched missiles, where countries essentially rely on or will soon rely on American, Israeli, or South Korean solutions. The signed document aims to change this situation.

The letter of intent indicates this should be a long-range weapon, ideally exceeding 500 kilometres. All the countries participating in the program already have various weaponry ranging from about 300 kilometres or more. For example, Poland has gained access to MGM-140 ATACMS or CTM-290 ballistic missiles from the USA and South Korea, respectively, while Germany has Israeli Predator HAWK ballistic missiles.

The situation is more challenging for France and Italy, which, although they can acquire MGM-140 ATACMS missiles for their M270 MLRS launchers, currently rely mainly on Storm Shadow missiles launched from aircraft for long-range strikes.

The new missile's concept, likely to be launched from land, corresponds to the Land Cruise Missile (LCM) project showcased by MBDA at the Eurosatory fair in June. Conceptually, it is very similar to the Naval Cruise Missile (NCM), formerly MdCN, used by the French Navy (Marine Nationale) since 2017.

It is worth noting that the NCM, in turn, was primarily based on the Storm Shadow missile, which was dimensionally adapted for use with vertical or torpedo launchers and equipped with a rocket booster. The booster accelerates the missile in the initial phase to the appropriate speed and detaches after burning out; at this point, a turbojet engine takes over. The range of the naval version is estimated to be over 1,000 kilometres, and its multifunctional warhead weighs 300 kilograms.

The missile's guidance system is similar to that of the Storm Shadow, ensuring accurate target hits even within a metre under any conditions. The guidance system includes inertial and satellite navigation and an electro-optical seeker with a fourth-generation infrared (IIR) sensor that perceives the thermal image of the target.

This system ensures pinpoint accuracy in the final phase of flight. It scans the terrain and compares it with a preloaded map, providing satellite navigation accuracy even when it is unavailable. This is a significant advantage, as evidenced by the war in Ukraine, where weapons solely relying on a combination of INS/GPS were not as effective as expected.

Furthermore, as MBDA announced during the launch of the LCM at Eurosatory, the new missile will have a reduced radar signature, enabling it to fly at a very low altitude. Multiple missiles launched from different launchers and approaching from various directions will also be possible to attack a target. This type of attack was tested in 2024 when two NCM missiles launched from a frigate and a submerged submarine struck a target simultaneously.

The proposed launcher is still unknown, but if we assume, for example, the use of packages from the M270 MLRS or M142 HIAMRS systems present in all interested countries, they accommodate MGM-140 ATACMS missiles with a length of 4 metres, which would require "trimming" the NCM missile by 2.5 metres. This would likely affect the range if the diameter remained the same. Another option would be to use a launcher from the SAMP/T system, which would be the most optimal option for Italy or France.