NATO braces for major troop and air defence expansion
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has prompted NATO, which is committed to protecting all its territories, to ensure it has adequately sized armed forces. This is not an easy task, as an analysis by the Alliance reveals a shortage of at least 49 brigades, amounting to a quarter of a million soldiers.
NATO countries need to bolster their armed forces, and the Alliance requires significant financial resources to do so. Meeting the necessary capabilities will involve a land component expansion of up to 50 percent. These are the core findings from an unpublished NATO document accessed by Welt.
The two main priorities for the tenure of the new NATO Secretary General, who will be the Dutchman Mark Rutte starting October 1, 2024, focus on Russia. The first task is to ensure Ukraine receives the necessary support to defend against Russian aggression. The second is to protect NATO itself from Russia.
As "Welt" highlights, the new leader of the Alliance has a clear message: "there is no excuse," backed by a new analysis prepared by American General Christopher Cavoli and French Admiral Pierre Vandier, two key NATO military commanders.
MCR - minimum capability requirements for NATO
This stems from a critical declaration made in 2023, stating that NATO is to be "ready, willing, and able" to defend every inch of allied territory. To ensure these words translate into actual capabilities, a significant financial and organisational effort is necessary.
The scale is determined by "minimum capability requirements" (MCR). In 2021, 82 brigades were considered sufficient. However, the bar has now been raised significantly, with the MCR set at 131 brigades. This means that NATO must increase its armed forces by 49 brigades to meet its commitments.
The average strength of these brigades in the NATO publication is estimated at around 5,000 soldiers, near the upper limit of a brigade's typical strength (ranging from 3,000-5,000 soldiers).
This means that NATO's 32 current members should expand their armed forces by a total of 245,000 soldiers. According to the Ukrainian service Defence Express, this equates to four German armies (about 64,000 soldiers), two French armies (114,000 soldiers), or half the US Army (453,000 soldiers in ground forces).
NATO must expand air defence
In addition to troop numbers, the NATO analysis also highlights another critical weakness of the Alliance: air defence. The current situation requires an increase from the existing 293 ground units to the desired 1,467 units.
This pertains to various types of weaponry, from close-range defence systems, like the German Skyranger, proving effective in Ukraine, to medium and long-range systems such as the American Patriot. NATO also stresses the need to expand its helicopter forces.
