Macron pledges jets to Ukraine amidst growing logistical concerns

The President of France promised Ukraine Mirage 2000 fighter jets. Kyiv reacted cautiously to the proposal. It's unclear if another type of machine, after the F-16, will pose a bigger problem than potential gains.

"We announce the transfer of Mirage 2000 fighters to Ukraine and the commencement of training for pilots and technicians in the technical maintenance of the aircraft," declared Emmanuel Macron on June 6. The French president surprised not only Ukrainians but also NATO partners.

Volodymyr Zelensky, speaking before the French parliament the next day, thanked the French for their previous help ("Je vous remercie la France" - thank you, France) and briefly referred to Macron's new proposal: "French fighter jets piloted by Ukrainian pilots will show that Europe is strong and united by common values."

The Ukrainian did not mention that Macron's idea is a bit strange because it simply was not appropriate at such an elevated moment. The assessment—also balanced—appeared in a statement by a spokesperson of the Ukrainian Air Force.

"For now, we do not comment on the statements of foreign leaders; we are waiting for the statements of our highest political leadership. We use the forces and resources we have," said Maj. Ilia Yevlash is on the air at United News. "Like all modern aircraft, the Mirage 2000 can effectively carry out assigned combat missions, but the priority remains the F-16, which will soon arrive in Ukraine," Yevlash added.

And here's the rub. Two years ago, Ukrainians presented the West with a list of equipment they counted on and considered valid. The Mirage 2000 was not on it. Even if the French machines were to be given for free—and they presumably are not gifts but sales—they would be a pretty problematic present.

French and Ukrainian media speculate that Kyiv might initially get only six aircraft from Paris. That is because the pace of replacing the Mirage 2000 with new Rafale jets in France is much slower than expected. More could be delivered to Ukraine only if other users of the Mirage 2000, such as Qatar, Egypt, or Greece, got involved. So far, no one has asked them, and for instance, the Egyptian jets have not been modernized for years, which calls into question their viability on the battlefield.

Other users will likely not want to part with their jets, as they have nothing to replace them with or have already sold some to other countries. Such is the case with the United Arab Emirates jets headed to Morocco. Theoretically, Qatar and Greece are left from the narrow group of countries.

Athens is considering selling 18 of its oldest jets, but they are in such condition that they are only suitable for spare parts. It still has 24 Mirage 2000-5 Mk2, but the Greeks won't sell them until they receive their F-35 Lightning IIs.

Qatar, on the other hand, uses twelve Mirage 2000-5 jets, which are currently being replaced by Rafales. On the eve of Emmanuel Macron's announcement to transfer jets to Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky visited Doha to discuss military aid. If – which is unknown – he talked about Qatar's Mirage 2000, then the French proposal would make more sense.

Delivering even a dozen jets other than the F-16 will create many additional problems. Of course, the physical transfer of the aircraft is simple. The complexities begin before they enter service. This must be preceded by many months of pilot and ground crew training and infrastructure adaptation to Western aircraft, which differ from the post-Soviet and Russian equipment used by Ukrainians.

Contrary to appearances, most problems may arise from training technicians and adapting infrastructure. In the case of training, NATO countries have limited capacities. The French have declared that they can train pilots and personnel, but if the program ends with just a few Mirage 2000s, the question remains: Is it worth starting the program?

Logistics is the cornerstone of any army's functioning. Spare parts need to be supplied for the equipment used, and main and periodic inspections need to be carried out. While in Land Forces, this is easier—although it still causes many problems for Ukrainians—in the Air Force, each new type in small quantities generates a whole specialized support system.

That's why Ukrainians emphasize that the priority remains the F-16, around which they want to build the entire system.

For now, the U.S. administration has approved the transfer of 95 machines to Ukraine. These are not brand-new aircraft. The Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, and Norway were the first foreign users of the F-16 in Europe. These countries began using the F-16 between 1982 and 1991. All the machines underwent mid-life upgrades, making their capabilities comparable to the Polish F-16C/D Block 52+.

In the past year, with support from Poles and Romanians, Ukrainians have built a training system. The first Ukrainian F-16s already had blue and yellow roundels painted on their fuselages and were used for exercises at the European Pilot Training Center in Romania.

"We have several stages of training. Virtually all are already filled. The first stage is ground training and language courses. The second is training on light aircraft, and the third stage takes place directly on the F-16 and is the final stage. There are still many bureaucratic procedures and technical nuances remaining. We are waiting for aircraft delivery as soon as possible," said Maj. Ilia Yevlash.

Despite many question marks, the fate of the French proposal now depends on Ukraine. Kyiv may conclude that despite many of the drawbacks mentioned, even a small fleet of Mirage 2000s can help them win against Russia.

There is also a second factor. In the European Parliament elections, the far-right National Rally won a sweeping victory in France. In response, Emmanuel Macron announced early national parliamentary elections. If the right wins again, the aid flow to Ukraine could be tightened. And it will not be just about the Mirage 2000.