Lifting restrictions: Western debate on Kyiv's military reach

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that "there are at least 250 military and paramilitary objects in Russia within range of ATACMS missiles that the United States has provided Ukraine." Analysts emphasize that the West's approval of using such long-range weapons against targets in Russia could significantly weaken Moscow's military capabilities. The USA holds a different opinion.

Discussions about using long-range weapons in Russia are gaining momentum, especially after the Ukrainian attack in Kursk Oblast.

In July, Radosław Sikorski, the former head of the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, appealed to Western allies to lift restrictions on Kyiv's use of these weapons. Sikorski argued that the Ukrainian army should be able to attack strategic targets in Russia, which could expedite the end of the conflict. However, not everyone agrees with this view.

Representatives of U.S. President Joe Biden's administration are more skeptical of this strategy. One anonymous national security official expressed that the Russian armed forces had already transferred most of their military aircraft from airbases near the Ukrainian border to safer airports deeper within the country. As a result, the Russian air force is becoming less accessible to Ukrainian attacks.

Despite reservations from the USA, experts from ISW believe that potential attacks on Russian military targets deeper in the country could significantly disrupt Russian military operations. Russia uses these areas to build infrastructure supporting military operations against Ukraine, making them valuable targets. Reducing the activity of the Russian Air Force is just one aspect to consider. Weakening other elements of the Russian military infrastructure is also essential.

The Institute indicates that in Russia, there is a wide range of military and paramilitary targets that could be attacked if Ukraine received the green light from its Western allies.

The redeployment of Russian air assets from Russian air bases in range of ATACMS does not remove the utility of using ATACMS against other Russian military targets. There are at least 250 military and paramilitary objects in Russia within range of ATACMS missiles that the United States has provided Ukraine, states the Institute for the Study of War

Such a decision could force Russia to disperse its air defence resources and support over a larger area, which could weaken its defence capabilities.

Regardless of how further decisions unfold, this topic will certainly be one of the critical elements of the debate over the future of the war in Ukraine.