Kremlin faces internal pressure for new troop mobilization
According to European intelligence sources, the Russian General Staff and the Ministry of Defence are exerting "serious pressure" on the Kremlin to announce a new mobilization to replenish forces in Ukraine. In a conversation with The Economist, NATO officials reported that Russia is struggling with a shortage of soldiers.
- Currently, Russia does not have sufficient forces. Even if they were able to make a breakthrough, they could not exploit it - explained a high-ranking NATO official.
The Russian army still relies on outdated tactics, leading to mass casualties on the battlefield. Support from North Korean soldiers, who are reportedly being sent to the front in the Kursk region, highlights the issues facing Russian troops.
NATO Chief Mark Rutte stated on Monday in Brussels that approximately 600,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded in the war in Ukraine. The deployment of North Korean troops in Russia, confirmed by the Alliance, was described as "an act of growing desperation" by Vladimir Putin.
Producing considerably more weapons
Sources from "The Economist" confirm that the Russian arms industry significantly surpasses the production of Western countries. "While the European Union estimates its annual ammunition production at one million units, Russia produces three times more with the support of North Korea and Iran" we read.
- I am not sure if we will be able to produce enough to meet Ukraine's needs without major compromises in other areas - explained an informant familiar with the U.S. military aid to Ukraine.
Mobilization and recruitment
NATO estimates that Russia recruits about 30,000 new soldiers monthly. Although this is not enough to achieve all the objectives on the front, it allows for covering vast human losses. According to Dr. Jack Watling, a senior analyst at the Royal United Services Institute, "Russia is not able to conduct warfare indefinitely," but if the situation at the front does not change, the "critical point" for Ukraine may come first.
Dr. Watling believes that Russia is aiming to achieve its goals in the Donbas next year, assuming that the Ukrainian army will suffer material and personal losses that will prevent it from stopping further Russian advances. This scenario would give Russia an advantage in potential peace negotiations.
In mid-September, The Wall Street Journal reported that the Russian military command approached dictator Vladimir Putin to announce another wave of mobilization.
Similar requests were made in March this year when Putin "was re-elected" as president.
During a meeting with the Ministry of Defence leadership, it was suggested that the May inauguration be used to announce mobilization. However, Putin refused, stating that he prefers to rely solely on those who voluntarily sign contracts with the ministry.
Putin is afraid to announce mobilization
Mobilization in Russia in the short and medium term is unlikely due to Vladimir Putin's concerns about the social consequences it could trigger, the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed at the end of September, noting repeated speculations about possible mobilization related to the situation on the front in Ukraine.
"Putin fears that mobilization would pose a direct threat to the stability of his regime" – ISW justifies its assessment.
