Kamala Harris faces tough battle; Michelle Obama ruled out

Michelle Obama is one of the most popular American women and one of the most esteemed First Ladies in history. For this reason, millions of Americans supporting Democrats believe that Barack Obama's wife - and not President Joe Biden - would have a better chance of defeating Donald Trump in the election.

According to an Ipsos poll cited by PAP at the beginning of July, Michelle Obama—who has repeatedly declared that she will not run in the election—could count on a significant advantage in a hypothetical match against Trump, defeating him by 50-39 percent. This would be a far better result than Biden, who—before resigning—garnered 40 percent support in the poll—about the same as his Republican rival.

Kamala Harris, who has the best chance of becoming the Democratic presidential candidate, can count on similar support (42 percent) today. But does she have a chance to win against Trump?

"At the outset, Kamala Harris's chances were not the greatest. She has spent 3.5 years in the shadow of President Biden, and it will not be easy for her to step out of that shadow. But she will have to. She must show that she is capable of an equal fight against her opponent," says Janusz Reiter, former ambassador of Poland to the USA and Germany, in an interview with Wirtualna Polska.

The diplomat emphasizes that "this is not a candidacy without a chance, but Kamala Harris faces a very tough battle, also because she arouses more controversy among the conservative part of society than Joe Biden."

"Her advantage might be that, as it seems, she will not lack strength. She has the capacity to mobilize many social groups, but on the other hand, she will also be a target of attacks by the most conservative part of Republicans, with Trump himself at the forefront," Janusz Reiter emphasizes.

Dr. Anna Sosnowska-Jordanovska from the Centre for American Studies at the University of Warsaw does not believe in Michelle Obama's candidacy.

"Speculation about Michelle Obama's candidacy is completely unserious. She is not seriously considered in any significant political calculations. This candidacy is purely media-driven. It is excluded that Obama could run. No serious media are analyzing this. There are not even credible polls on this topic," the expert tells us.

As she notes, "Michelle Obama is, of course, well-known, recognizable, popular, and liked, but she is not a career politician and has no ambitions or plans in this regard."

Janusz Reiter shares this view. "Many wanted to believe that Michelle Obama would be the Democratic candidate, but she should remain popular in public opinion polls. Election campaigns, after all, ruthlessly verify popularity tests," explains the former ambassador of Poland to the USA.

He says that this is one of the reasons why the Democratic Party would not decide to bet on Michelle Obama. "Unlike Kamala Harris, Michelle Obama is not a career politician. Her candidacy would be difficult to explain," the WP interviewee emphasizes.

He also adds that "it would not be politically mature for Democrats to bet on Obama just because she was the wife of a president."

"Being Barack Obama's wife did not automatically make Michelle a politician. Hillary Clinton was a politician; she led a political career independently, so that was different. She was assessed as someone from the political world. Mrs. Obama is not from the world of professional politics. Putting such a person in the fray would be ruthlessly exploited by the other side, also as evidence of the Democrats' political and personnel poverty," Janusz Reiter argues.

The former ambassador of Poland to the USA and Germany emphasizes, "We are a few months before the elections, and this is the highest stakes here."

"There is no time to consider who has experience and who should be considered a professional politician. When it comes to such an important function, such an important decision, and at a time when there is such a sharp confrontation, where completely different visions of America and the world confront each other, you choose someone who can fight the hardest. This is the chance of Kamala Harris because she is the most well-known. Even so, many in the Democratic Party may wonder if she will be strong enough to face Trump," Janusz Reiter concludes.

So, could there be an alternative for Kamala Harris? "The nomination is not certain; the Democratic convention will be crucial. Kamala Harris is the natural candidate; she has received the support of many Democratic Party leaders, but I still expect a few weeks of campaigning to formally designate a candidate. My intuition is that Kamala Harris seems today the best candidate for president from the Democrats' perspective," says Dr. Anna Sosnowska-Jordanovska to Wirtualna Polska.

The expert also stresses that it will be very important who Democrats point to as the candidate for vice president in any Harris administration. "Mark E. Kelly, senator from Arizona, could be a vice-presidential candidate. I also think Josh Shapiro, governor of Pennsylvania, could be considered. Both represent so-called swing states, which could contribute significantly to the campaign and complement Kamala Harris," says Dr. Sosnowska-Jordanovska.

The analyst from the Centre for American Studies at the University of Warsaw highly evaluates the potential candidate's chances. She sees her potential. "Kamala Harris had bad press throughout Biden's term, although I do not fully understand why. She had to face many prejudices in various aspects. Some people did not take her seriously - perhaps due to cultural differences. And yet, she is a very experienced politician, has held very important public functions, and has very clear views" lists Dr. Sosnowska-Jordanovska.

As she adds, "Harris can mobilize young voters, as well as those of Asian or African American descent. Enthusiasm among these voters has significantly increased. But we will see how that translates into electoral votes."