Israel redefines Syria's power balance after Assad's fall
A few hours after the Assad regime was toppled in Syria, the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) launched airstrikes on targets in Syria and deployed troops in the buffer zone on the Golan Heights. According to experts, Israel took advantage of the chaos following the takeover by the rebels and decided to implement "preemptive actions".
To recap, already on Sunday, IDF units crossed the demarcation line between Israel and Syria and entered territory under Damascus' jurisdiction, patrolled by the UN peacekeeping forces (UNDOF). This concerns the demilitarized area in the region of the Golan Heights, occupied since 1967.
Israelis found themselves there for the first time since the Yom Kippur War of 1973-1974. Simultaneously, the IDF conducted airstrikes on targets in Syria. Airbases, intelligence facilities, customs services, barracks, and quarters of the Syrian government forces were bombed. The government in Jerusalem reported that the Israeli air force destroyed most of the "strategic weapons" in the Syrian army's arsenal within 48 hours. Meanwhile, on Monday, Israeli missile boats destroyed Syria's war fleet.
- The IDF has acted in the last few days to attack and destroy strategic capabilities that threaten the State of Israel – said Israel's Defence Minister Israel Katz.
Israel strikes in advance
According to Jarosław Kociszewski, what Israel is doing now are preemptive actions.
- Israel realized that when the Syrian state collapses, major military assets could fall into any hands. They could end up with Hezbollah or another organization hostile to the Jerusalem government. Therefore, they decided to destroy anything that could change the balance of power. Hence the strike on the Syrian navy, air force, air defence, missile forces, main strategic weapons storage, and also the military industry and research institutes – said Jarosław Kociszewski, an expert on the Middle East and editor-in-chief of the new.org.pl magazine, to Wirtualna Polska.
In his opinion, as a result, Israel has practically "castrated" the Syrian army.
- As a modern combat force, it has practically ceased to exist. Israel calculated that leaving this equipment in foreign hands could threaten them and decided to eliminate it quickly. Even if it would make future negotiations with the new Syrian authorities more difficult – says Kociszewski.
And as he emphasizes, the most important fact is that the Israeli forces have taken the Syrian army's positions on the Hermon peaks.
- It is the highest peak in the area, about 2,800 metres. A strategic peak. Previously controlled by the Assad regime, it caused a gap in Israel's air defence. Drones flew through there, hiding in the terrain. Both Hezbollah and Iran used it. They, therefore, seized the peak to place their radar systems. They now have a view of Syria, reaching very far. Damascus is within the artillery range of the Israeli army. But most importantly, they have much greater control over the space – comments the interlocutor of Wirtualna Polska.
Meanwhile, Col. (res.) Maciej Matysiak emphasizes that Israel is taking advantage of the chaos that ensued with the fall of the Assad regime.
- As a result, if the Syrian anti-aircraft system does not work, the Israeli air force can "roam" as it pleases. It's an opportunity that the IDF decided to seize. Additionally, it is unknown how the new authorities in Syria will behave. And how relations with ISIS, which is increasingly vocal, will look – says WP Col. (res.) Maciej Matysiak, former deputy head of the Military Counterintelligence Service and an expert at the Stratpoints Foundation.
The former military officer believes that Israel is fully exploiting the current situation in Syria.
- If they had reservations when Assad was in power, now they are ruthlessly pursuing their goals. That's why they enter the Golan Heights, that's why they bomb arms depots and enter deep into Syrian territory. Whether they will occupy it for longer is unknown. They will certainly not give up their current gains quickly – assesses the former deputy head of SKW.
In his view, by creating a buffer zone in Syria, Israel enables itself to intercept and destroy drones flying towards Israel.
- We do not know how the new authorities in Syria focused on HTS will behave. There are also jihadist organizations there that want to conduct holy war across the Middle East, including against Israel. Jerusalem acts quickly because it knows that the rebels do not have ground potential, air force, or long-range offensive means. Only light manoeuvre forces, along with modest artillery and drones. It would be a sin not to take advantage of such a situation – Matysiak tells us.
Plan implementation
According to Jarosław Kociszewski, Israel has long intended to take similar actions in Syria. – They used the right moment. It is hard for me to imagine them withdrawing from there in any foreseeable future, especially from Hermon. It's too valuable. They will attack again if they feel they have missed Syrian military assets somewhere. Or if the new authorities in Syria start taking actions towards Israel – Kociszewski assesses.
And he notes that in practice, Israel has opened a new front line.
- For now, it is less active. But if any new authority in Syria wants to regain the territories now occupied by the IDF, this could quickly change. At present, there is a high risk that another conflict could erupt there. For now, at little cost, Israel has taken risks. From their point of view, it is profitable. But we do not know what may happen in the future – concludes Jarosław Kociszewski, an expert on the Middle East.
Let us remember that Assad was overthrown by Sunni jihadists from the opposition, linked to Al-Qaeda Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) along with smaller supporting organizations. The dictator evacuated to Moscow, where he received political asylum.
