India and allies fueling Russia's war effort through secret support

In September 2024, the world learned about New Delhi's plans to sell the T-72 tanks used by the Indian army. More than 2,400 machines in the T-72M1 variant are to be upgraded, after which the gradually retired tanks will be offered to less demanding clients from Africa and Asia.

These plans have raised concerns in Ukraine. This is due to information that the modernization of Indian tanks will be carried out in collaboration with the Russian industry. This raises fears that the equipment arriving in Russia for modernization may never leave. Instead of reaching customers in distant corners of the world, it could be used by Russia to replenish losses suffered during the invasion of Ukraine.

These concerns are not unfounded. While the Prime Minister of India visits Kyiv and Warsaw, talking a lot about the need for peace, the world's largest refinery built in Jamnagar, India, is absorbing Russia's surplus oil, resulting from Western sanctions.

Oil products – now labelled as Indian, not Russian – are subsequently exported without obstacles, including to Europe. India profits from this, but obviously, Russia also benefits, receiving a continuous stream of cash.

New Delhi’s aid to Moscow is camouflaged, but there are countries that support Russia's war effort in more direct ways.

Some – like China – do it while maintaining the appearance of neutrality and declaring restrictions on exporting "non-lethal equipment," which includes everything necessary to conduct a war except for weapons.

Thus, from China flows a stream of personal protective equipment, medical kits, bulletproof vests, and helmets to Russia, as well as drones and electronic components. All this – as French President Emmanuel Bonne’s advisor noted in 2023 – directly impacts Russia's ability to wage war.

It is enough to mention that – according to the Ukrainer service – "a study by the Expert Group on Sanctions Against Russia revealed that 67% of foreign components used in drone models employed in Russian attacks against Ukraine originate from China."

If Beijing wished, it could stop the war with one decision – by halting the supply of cotton-derived nitrocellulose, essential for the Russian arms industry (although Russia is trying to change this by developing technologies to produce gunpowder, for example, using wood). However, nothing of the sort is happening.

In mid-2024, Bloomberg estimated that at least 10,000 railcars with ammunition had been sent from North Korea to Russia, containing an estimated 4.8 million artillery shells. The scale of this aid is evident from the fact that both Czech "ammunition coalitions", involving around 20 Western countries, aim to deliver 1.7 million shells to Ukraine over several months.

In a situation where the Russian army's quartermaster began scraping the bottom of warehouses filled with shells from the Cold War era, the poor quality of North Korean ammunition became secondary, as did the risks associated with its use.

Even the Russians criticize it, as noted by Wirtualna Polska journalist, Przemysław Juraszek: "Absolute junk. If a (North Korean) shell reached and exploded, artillerymen celebrate. Everyone dances and sings songs praising Chairman Kim. If the shell missed and fell on the heads of our infantry – thank the half-starved guys from North Korea who assembled it for a bowl of rice."

"Quantity is quality too," Joseph Stalin supposedly said years ago, and this principle applies on the front lines, where fire intensity counts alongside accuracy: the same effect as with precise guided ammunition fire can be achieved by firing dozens of ordinary shells. Most will miss, but thanks to thousands of railcars sent by Pyongyang, statistics favour the Russians: one of the shells will eventually hit.

The aid also extends beyond artillery shells. Russia—via a roundabout route—received its own technology back. This happened thanks to North Korean tank destroyers with Bulsae anti-tank-guided missiles. These are Korean variants of Russian weapons—Bulsae-4 is an upgrade of the 9M111 Fagot missile, and Bulsae-5 is an upgrade of the 9M133 Kornet missile.

Equally important is Tehran's support. Drones used to terrorize Ukrainian cities and destroy infrastructure, ballistic missiles – like Fath 360 – and ammunition (~gauged much higher by the Russians than that from North Korea) are invaluable support.

Especially since, in this cooperation, the roles have reversed – Russia received not only material assistance but also technological support in the form of licenses for Shahid family drones.

Analysis of these drones' wrecks, carried out by Ukrainians, reveals an uncomfortable truth: besides components from China, key parts of these – and many other – Russian weapons come from the West. And they are assembled by Russians despite the sanctions.

This is possible thanks to a network of companies set up by Russian agents in various countries worldwide. Through a chain of intermediating entities, important components can be exported from the United States, as recently revealed by the arrest in Florida of one of the Russian organizers of this practice.

Significant institutional support for Russia also comes from the United Arab Emirates, which has been linked with Moscow by a "strategic partnership" since 2018. Its practical implementation includes a network of companies allowing Russia to easily bypass Western sanctions. Kazakhstan also plays a similar role, as does Belarus, albeit to a lesser extent due to tighter sanctions enforcement.

Support can also be symbolic, as in the case of visits by Russian warships or military aircraft to South Africa (which halted ammunition supplies to Poland) or friendly gestures towards Russia from Mongolia.

Though this country formally falls under the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court and even participates in its activities (e.g., by supporting the arrest warrant for the Israeli Prime Minister), it rolls out the red carpet for visiting Putin, who is also under an arrest warrant, openly mocking the decisions of the Hague institution.

As noted in the recently published book "The Autocracy Incorporated" by Anne Applebaum, an alliance of dictatorships and autocracies has emerged worldwide, which, by supporting each other, challenges the West and its values.

Ukraine has become the front line of this confrontation. Although Russia is directly responsible for military aggression, and primarily – though not exclusively – Russian passport holders die in battles, a broad, international coalition stands behind them. Russia's ability to continue fighting would be significantly more limited without it.