Harris presidency: Shifting alliances, testing global resolve

"If Harris wins the U.S. presidential elections, the United States will view China as the main threat while staying substantially involved in Europe, maintaining political and military leadership within NATO," PISM wrote in a report before the elections on Tuesday in the United States.

"The most significant shift will be in the stance toward Israel and its conflict with Hamas, where the United States may adopt a more humanitarian perspective and consider Palestine's interests. Meanwhile, Harris's position on the international stage will likely be weaker than Biden's, which may encourage China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran to test the credibility of U.S. international commitments," it added.

PISM assesses that a Harris presidency would represent in many areas of foreign policy a continuation of the current administration's approach and actions.

Kamala's presidency will be characterized by a strong belief in multilateralism and efforts to achieve goals through participation in multilateral formats. Harris, as a politician with less experience than President Biden, might initially have a weaker position on the international stage. This could encourage China and Russia, as well as North Korea and Iran, to escalate threats and test the credibility of the United States in fulfilling its international commitments using hybrid and military means.

The administration may attempt to increase criticism of Israel for its actions in Gaza, possibly also in Lebanon, but with limited ability to influence Israeli policy, this will primarily be aimed at the internal socio-political scene.

It is also possible that similar to Biden's term, efforts to engage with African and Latin American countries will not yield significant results due to the prioritization of current challenges in the Indo-Pacific, Europe, and the Middle East. However, the Harris administration may enhance the United States' ability to influence security in the Indo-Pacific by employing economic initiatives beneficial to countries in the region, such as the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF).

The United States will continue supporting Europe's security primarily through military engagement within NATO, a key pillar of allied defence and deterrence capabilities. Although a major reduction of U.S. military forces in Europe is not anticipated, the number of forces deployed following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 may decrease.

At the same time, Harris will not quickly solve the problem of the United States' lack of capacity to conduct two wars (in Europe and the Indo-Pacific) simultaneously. Therefore, she will seek—more robustly than Biden, but in a very different manner from Trump between 2017 and 2021—to strengthen the participation of European countries in ensuring transatlantic security (within the concept of the European pillar of NATO), it was stated.

"Similar to Biden, she will attempt to mitigate the risk of escalation from Russia, which will result in the exclusion of significant deterrence strengthening of that state in Europe, for example, by deploying new U.S. military capabilities in countries on the eastern flank. It's also unlikely there will be an increase or even maintenance of the current military support for Ukraine. Strengthening assistance provided by European countries will therefore be crucial to ensure Ukraine's defence capabilities and create appropriate conditions for negotiations with Russia," it added.