Georgia's EU talks halt sparks nationwide protests

On Thursday, Georgia's Prime Minister, Irakli Kobachidze, unexpectedly announced that Georgia would suspend talks about EU membership until 2028. "We have decided not to address the issue of opening talks with the EU until the end of 2028. We are also forgoing all EU budgetary grants until the end of 2028," he stated.

This unexpected declaration shocked Georgians. The country applied for membership in 2022 and, a year later, obtained candidate status. That same evening, a few thousand people took to the streets in the capital city of Tbilisi. Authorities used water cannons and tear gas to disperse the demonstrators. Dozens of people were detained, and an equal number were injured in the clashes.

"The Georgian Dream has scored an own goal. They didn't expect such a reaction from society. After the opposition's defeat in the elections, there was no desire to protest. But yesterday, a few thousand people gathered spontaneously, without any planning," comments Georgian political scientist Prof. Grigol Julukhidze, currently in Tbilisi, in an interview with Wirtualna Polska. He predicts that future protests will be even larger.

The political scientist who followed the election campaign focuses on the deception carried out by the Georgian Dream against voters. The ruling party's politicians did not previously mention withdrawing from pro-European aspirations.

"This topic was not present in the election campaign. The campaign was built to proclaim the need to avoid war with Russia. They said that if there was a government change, war would ensue. To ordinary citizens, they looked like a pro-Western party, not pro-Russian, but one that could maintain peace with Russia. There was no narrative about changing the pro-European political course," convinces Grigol Julukhidze.

He adds that even today, government representatives still assert that this decision does not mean the end of Georgian Eurointegration. "They say it's a strategic political decision to improve relations with the West. That's simply nonsense," he believes.

According to the Centre for Eastern Studies director, Wojciech Konończuk, "the Georgian government has forgotten why the revolution erupted in Ukraine."

Coincidentally, Saturday marks the 11th anniversary of the "Revolution of Dignity" in Ukraine, which ousted the pro-Russian and anti-European President Viktor Yanukovych. Is a Ukrainian scenario possible in Georgia as well?

"I wouldn't exclude that. We are dealing with a government error that may turn out to be very far-reaching for them," comments Dr. Wojciech Konończuk.

He recalls that according to surveys, even about 80 percent of citizens supported Georgia's integration with the European Union.

"We have a paradoxical situation where Georgians are predominantly pro-European, yet they vote for a party that was moderately eurosceptic but still maintained a course directed towards Georgia's integration with the European Union. But that was until yesterday," says Dr. Konończuk.

The expert emphasizes that so far, the Georgian government has been doing quite well in terms of the Western world's reaction to the unjust election results. There was some hardening of positions, but neither the European Union nor the United States broke off relations with Georgia.

"Now we have a completely new situation. The authorities have enraged society. We'll see how long people will have the energy. But I also see another analogy to Ukraine over a decade ago. The Georgian society imagines the European Union as a better future, a promise of a wealthy, European home of which Georgia could be a part. Today, on the way to this Georgian dream of society, stands the Georgian Dream party," points out Dr. Wojciech Konończuk.

Commentators generally believe Georgia's moves aim to direct the country toward Russia. Grigol Julukhidze does not doubt that "this is an operation completely planned and supervised by Russia."

What might be even more surprising is the prime minister's declaration about relinquishing EU funds. Could Georgia then have already promised support from Russia?

"Russia promises nothing. Remember, there are still no official diplomatic relations between Russia and Georgia. Relations have, of course, warmed up, and the tone of Kremlin media is very positive regarding the Georgian government. But the fact that Georgia gave up on those EU funds is another impulse that angered society. Those were quite significant sums for a still impoverished country like Georgia," says Wojciech Konończuk.

He believes the prime minister's decision is "misunderstood dignity politics."

"He said that after 2028, Georgia will integrate with the European Union on its terms. And that is impossible because these are not negotiations where the EU and the Georgian side both give something up. It effectively works like this: either you take something or are not a European Union member. The way the Georgian prime minister posed the issue shows quite clearly that there is no intention from the Georgian Dream authorities to direct Georgia towards Europe. Society says 'no' to this. What may come of this confrontation remains an open question," says the Centre for Eastern Studies director.

According to Grigol Julukhidze, establishing normal diplomatic relations between Georgia and Russia in the current situation is only a matter of time.

"Now the government believes that relations with Brussels should be severed first, citing absurd reasons. I'm not joking. Even the prime minister openly says that there is a Global War Party, which planned everything: attempts on Trump, on the Slovak prime minister Fico, and other events. They present such conspiracy theories. The parliamentary speaker said a few days ago that Georgia's accession to the European Union would involve risk because we would have to cancel visa-free travel with such important countries as Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and China. All that is happening now in Georgia is a theatre of the absurd," Grigol Julukhidze summarizes.