EU‑Mercosur trade deal on the brink amidst European divide
The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, is looking forward to finalizing the EU-Mercosur trade agreement. The agreement faces strong opposition from countries such as France and Poland.
The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, is optimistic about the agreement developed by the EU and South American countries. "The finish line of the EU-Mercosur agreement is in sight. Let’s work, let’s cross it. We have the chance to create a market of 700 million people," she posted on Thursday on the X platform (formerly Twitter).
In the rest of her post, von der Leyen emphasized that it represents "the largest trade and investment partnership the world has ever seen," from which "both regions will benefit."
The head of the EC supports the agreement with Mercosur
This concerns the free trade agreement between the EU and Mercosur countries, namely Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Bolivia, and Uruguay, which has been under negotiation for over 20 years. In 2019, a political agreement was reached, but the agreement has yet to be signed. In Europe, it faces opposition from France and Poland. Farmers in both countries warn that the agreement could lead to an uncontrolled influx of affordable agricultural products from South America, which might replace domestic goods without meeting EU standards.
EC trade spokesperson Olof Gill stated during a press briefing in Brussels on Thursday that—besides the head of the European Commission—Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič will also meet with the leaders of the Mercosur countries in Montevideo. "I hope that this agreement, which I'm sure we will discuss at greater length today, could be concluded on very, very fair grounds,” the spokesperson said.
Agreement options from Brussels' perspective
The European Commission may propose signing just the trade part of the agreement at the EU level. For this agreement to be accepted, it must receive the support of a qualified majority, which means 15 out of 27 member states, representing at least 65% of the EU population. Alternatively, the EC might present countries with a broader "mixed" version of the agreement, which—in addition to the trade component—would include political declarations. National parliaments would need to approve this. However, it is said in Brussels that the EC would be hesitant about this solution.
The Élysée Palace announced on X shortly after the European Commission President’s post that Paris would not accept the agreement with Mercosur in its current form. President Macron had already informed von der Leyen about this on Thursday. The issue is that even with potential support from Poland and several other EU countries, as Austria, Luxembourg, Greece, and the Netherlands are also expected to oppose the agreement, France does not have the required majority to block it.
There is speculation in Brussels that von der Leyen has decided to leverage the political crisis in France, which has been the loudest critic of the agreement, to quickly conclude the negotiations. The Commission denies these claims, arguing that the EC holds exclusive competence to negotiate trade agreements with global partners but does so based on a mandate granted by all member states.
