China's quiet nod: North Korean troops bolster Putin's war

Relations between Russia, North Korea, and China tightened in the context of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. According to intelligence services of the United States and South Korea, the regime in Pyongyang supplied Moscow with millions of artillery shells and, in October, transported to Russia at least 3,000 soldiers.

Although China declares neutrality toward the conflict in Ukraine and claims it doesn't provide lethal aid to any side, it simultaneously does not condemn the Russian invasion but opposes sanctions imposed on Moscow. Furthermore, three weeks before Russia's full-scale aggression on Ukraine, the leaders of China and Russia, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, announced a "friendship without limits" between their countries.

"It is generally believed that the deployment of troops is happening despite Beijing's opposition," Atkinson told PAP. However, he believes this perception results from a misinterpretation of power dynamics and a misunderstanding of the leaders' goals.

Most observers agree that without China's support, Putin's war efforts would collapse, and North Korea would fall as a state. Beijing remains the dominant partner in this triangle – highlighted Atkinson in an interview with PAP.

He added that "the current liberal world order is not a safe environment for any of these three regimes," and a priority for Xi Jinping is to avoid the fate of the Soviet Union.

According to the expert, the fundamental goals of China, Russia, and North Korea are aligned, and differences may only pertain to tactics and timing.

I think, therefore, it is highly probable that when Putin and Kim Jong Un decided on this deployment, they sought approval from Beijing and received it – evaluated Atkinson.

– In other words, Xi himself sat down and discussed it with his most trusted people and decided that all things considered, it's better to allow it than not – he explained.

According to the expert, portraying China as the "good cop" serves not only Beijing but also the interests of Russia and North Korea. "European governments, instead of taking action against Russia or punishing the DPRK and China, engage in dialogue with Beijing, expecting that dissatisfied China will appeal for the withdrawal of North Korean troops," the expert noted.

Atkinson warns that Pyongyang's support for Moscow could have security consequences not only in Europe but also in East Asia. Deploying 11,000 soldiers at a time when Putin wants to avoid another mobilization among Russians is "very valuable" for the Kremlin, and Pyongyang "almost certainly will receive something of comparable value in return." This could be, for example, missile, nuclear, submarine, or satellite technology.

Putin won't give more than he has to, but he has to give a lot. And Pyongyang will appreciate it all – emphasized the professor.

Although Russia would not provide North Korea with direct military aid in the event of a conflict on the Korean Peninsula, the technological support makes the DPRK's nuclear threats towards the USA or Seoul more credible. This gives North Korea the ability to engage in provocations, even if its actual combat potential has decreased due to supporting the Kremlin – explained Atkinson.

The expert believes that in the current geopolitical context, Xi Jinping is cautious regarding a potential invasion of Taiwan. However, if he decides that the time is right, Russia and North Korea will support Beijing because its loss "would be a devastating strategic failure for all three" – he assessed.

Finally, Atkinson points out that if Russia loses in Ukraine, it will be "swept off the chessboard."

But if it wins, it will be ready to checkmate Europe, effectively forcing the USA to maintain forces in Europe while simultaneously supplying Beijing with food, oil, and resources – summarized the expert in an interview with PAP.