Asteroid 2024 YR4: 1.2% chance of Earth impact in 2032
According to the European Space Agency (ESA), asteroid 2024 YR4 has a 1.2% probability of impacting Earth in 2032. Astronomers are closely monitoring the situation.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered on December 27, 2024, in Chile as part of the ATLAS program, which aims to detect asteroids that threaten Earth. Its diameter is estimated to be between 40 and 100 metres. According to TVN24, the European Space Agency (ESA) and the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) agree it has a 1.2% probability of hitting Earth.
Threat to Earth
The asteroid has been classified as a three on the 11-point Torino Scale, requiring astronomers' attention. An object of this size impacts Earth on average every few thousand years, potentially causing significant damage in the impact region. The ESA emphasizes that initial collision probability estimates may be overstated but could change as more data is gathered.
Tracking the asteroid could become more complex as its orbit shifts further from Earth in the coming months. The ESA recognizes that existing observations may not be enough to entirely dismiss the possibility of a collision in 2032. Another chance to observe it will arise in 2028. According to an ESA statement, asteroids of this size typically strike Earth once every few thousand years, potentially causing severe damage in the impact area.
