Anticipating F‑16 impact: mixed expectations on Ukraine's front

Military analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko assessed that the capabilities of the long-awaited F-16 fighters will vary depending on the direction in which they operate. While in the south, they will make it "difficult for the Russians," in the east, it will not be so obvious.

The long-awaited American F-16 fighters should soon reach Ukraine. Public opinion suggests that this might happen in the coming weeks – heralded by the intensification of Ukrainian shelling toward Russian air defence systems. The Russian Federation Army has been sustaining significant losses in recent weeks in terms of tools used to counter aerial threats.

Although several experts have repeatedly discussed the F-16, pointing out its strengths and weaknesses and assessing how many specific planes the Ukrainian army needs to dominate Russia in the air, now Oleksandr Kovalenko has evaluated how the F-16s will perform, noting that the fighters will not have an easy job in every direction on the front.

–It will be difficult for the Russians in the south and in Crimea – Kovalenko notes. – In these locations, Western radar aircraft can operate relatively freely – he explains, pointing to where Russian air defence has suffered the most significant losses.

The analyst emphasizes that the use and targeting of the F-16 will be simplified thanks to the fighters' "full compatibility" with the radar aircraft previously used by Ukrainians in the southern part of Ukraine.

While the operation of the F-16 in the south should not be hindered, the other directions on the front may pose a bigger challenge for Ukrainian planes. Kovalenko explains that the risk will increase during F-16 operations along the eastern line or along the northeastern border. In this area, the Russian Federation may amass more tools capable of threatening the F-16 than in the southern direction.

Let us recall that these fighters, which experts believe "will change the rules of the game," stand out against Soviet competitors primarily because they can carry a wider range of weapons.

On nine weapon stations, the F-16 can carry, among others, AGM-65 Maverick air-to-ground missiles, Mk82/84 bombs weighing approximately 250 and 900 kg, and AIM-120 AMRAAM air-to-air radar missiles. The maneuverability of the American fighters is also noteworthy. This ability is due to the aircraft's low empty weight of about 8,000 kg and the ability to accelerate to speeds of about 2,500 km/h. The basic variant of the F-16 has a range of 3,200 km, which increases to 4,200 km with additional fuel tanks. The maximum altitude at which the F-16 can operate is over 15,200 meters.