Aging fleet casts shadow on U.S. Air Force dominance
The United States spends more on its military than the following ten countries combined when it comes to defence spending. Despite this, the U.S. Air Force—still the strongest globally—faces funding challenges. Consequently, the aircraft fleet is aging, and the number of available planes is gradually decreasing.
The future air dominance of the U.S. and its current capabilities are at risk. Although the U.S. Air Force remains the most powerful on the planet, it is gradually losing numbers, and the average age of combat aircraft is increasing.
The number of bombers, air tankers, transport planes, and training aircraft has remained roughly stable in recent years. However, there is a systematic decrease in the number of aircraft directly involved in combat—fighter and multirole aircraft, such as various versions of the F-15, F-16, F-22, and F-35 (the production of the latter does not cover the shortages resulting from the withdrawal of older machines).
According to official budget data, in 2025, the USAF will have 1,295 of these aircraft, while (according to Statista) in 2024, they had 1,351, and in 2023 - 1,418.
This statistic is worsened because the number of specialized strike aircraft is also decreasing—the old A-10C machines are gradually being retired without a modern equivalent entering service. Their role is to be taken over by multirole aircraft (primarily the F-35).
Leaving aside the question of whether this is feasible at all (according to some U.S. commanders backed by tests, it's not), this leads to a situation where not only is the number of multirole aircraft declining but these planes will also be burdened with additional tasks.
Aircraft older than their crews
Simultaneously, the average age of combat aircraft is increasing. In 1991, right after the end of the Cold War, the U.S. Air Force had about 4,000 combat aircraft with an average age of slightly over eight years.
Currently, fewer than one-third of that number have an average age of 26-29 years. Slight fluctuations in this value are not due to generational changes but because the oldest aircraft in the statistics are being phased out and are not fully replaced by new planes.
Such an old aircraft generates additional problems, such as increasing maintenance costs and readiness issues. Currently, roughly since the mid-2010s, it has been maintained at about 50 percent, meaning that in case of urgent need, only about every other aircraft listed in the statistics can be sent into combat.
What height should a pilot have?
Meanwhile, the Air Force faces another unexpected challenge. Aircraft designed over fifty years ago were optimized for pilots of slightly different dimensions, and the average height has slightly increased over the decades.
Simultaneously, the Air Force has struggled with a pilot shortage that hasn't been resolved for years. The number of vacancies has reached 2,000, so height restrictions were lifted to increase the pool of potential candidates.
Until 2023, pilots—regardless of gender—had to be taller than 163 centimetres (5 feet 4 inches) and shorter than 196 centimetres (6 feet 5 inches) (though there were exceptions to this rule). Because over 43 percent of potential female candidates for a career in the Air Force did not meet these requirements, the restrictions were lifted to limit the number of rejected applications.
As a result, candidates meeting the new requirements have limitations on the aircraft types they can pilot. To solve this issue, the USAF had to implement additional anthropometric studies. Paweł Behrendt from Konflikty.pl explains their significance:
Rivals are not wasting time
The answer to these problems is new aircraft, especially since the specialized air superiority machine, the F-22 Raptor, is being phased out. Unfortunately, the production rate of new F-35s is insufficient. Although the F-35 remains a modern plane, it is worth noting that the first units entered service in 2016 and are already nine years old, which is older than the average age of a combat aircraft in 1991.
Meanwhile, only 467 units have been delivered to the Air Force so far (as of the end of 2024). In 2025, there are expected to be 522 units, and in 2026, there will be 544 units. The plan aims to reach a target of 1,763 delivered units by 2049.
There is no talk of a generational change—the production and delivery rate is so low that by the time the Air Force receives the last F-35s, the first batches of these aircraft will already be technological relics.
Meanwhile, dark clouds are gathering over the potential successor, which is expected to emerge from the NGAD program. The problems are so severe that Andrew Hunter, Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics, stated in an interview:
American dominance
Although this sounds alarming, according to the Chief of Staff of the U.S. Air Force, David Alvin, Chinese progress in this field was achieved through stolen U.S. technology. This means that despite current issues, Americans still maintain aviation technology dominance.
These are not empty words. While rivals attempt with varying success (like Russia with the Su-57 or China with the J-20) to build a functioning 5th-generation fighter, Americans are phasing out the first type of such machines—the F-22 Raptor, which technologically outpaced the rest of the world by about 30 years.
The same is accurate for modern bombers—while building a machine like the B-2 Spirit remains a challenge for China or Russia, the United States has not only developed but also begun production of its successor in the form of the B-21 Raider.
Therefore, despite the problems plaguing the USAF, the American Air Force remains the largest aviation power in the world. Especially since, alongside the USAF, the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps also have their air forces. However, if budget constraints continue for a prolonged period, the advantage developed over decades will gradually diminish.
